Beyond the Fundamentals: How Media-Driven Narratives Influence Cross-Border Capital Flows
Isha Agarwal, Wentong Chen, Eswar Prasad, Apr 02,
2025
We provide the first empirical evidence on how media-driven narratives influence cross-border institutional investment flows. Applying natural language processing techniques to 1.5 million newspaper articles, we document substantial cross-country variation in sentiment and risk indices constructed from domestic media narratives about China in 15 countries. These narratives significantly affect portfolio flows, even after controlling for macroeconomic and financial fundamentals. This impact is smaller for investors with greater familiarity or private information about China and larger during periods of heightened uncertainty. Political and environmental narratives are as influential as economic narratives. Investors react more sharply to negative narratives than positive ones.
Banking and Banking Reforms in China in a Model of Costly State Verification
Jie Luo, Cheng Wang, Mar 26,
2025
We present a macro view of China’s financial system, in which a monopolistic banking sector coexists endogenously with bonds and private loans. In equilibrium smaller firms raise finance from private lending, larger firms do so through bank loans, and the largest firms do so by issuing bonds. The model predicts that expanding credit supply increases bank loans but reduces bond finance and private lending, in absolute terms and relative to total credit. In addition, removing the interest rate ceiling on bank lending—a recent reform in China—induces larger loans and higher lending rates, lowering the share of bank loans in total credit. We present empirical evidence to support these predictions.
High-Speed Rail and China's Electric Vehicle Adoption Miracle
Hanming Fang, Ming Li, Long Wang, Yang Yang, Mar 19,
2025
We investigate whether high-speed rail (HSR) connectivity influences electric vehicle (EV) adoption, using a quasi-natural experiment from China’s HSR expansion and several identification strategies. Our findings consistently show that, by alleviating range anxiety, the expansion of HSR can account for up to one third of the increase in EV market share and EV sales in China during our sample period from 2010 to 2023, with effects particularly pronounced in cities served by faster HSR lines. These results suggest that transportation infrastructure can play a complementary role in accelerating the transition to electric mobility.
E vs. G: Environmental Policy and Earnings Management in China
Darwin Choi, Feifei Lai, Mar 12,
2025
We examine the conflict between environmental and governance issues arising from China’s automatic air pollutant monitoring system, introduced in 2012. Our findings suggest that polluting firms engage in downward earnings management to potentially minimize regulatory attention, with factors such as firm size, profitability, and market conditions influencing the extent of this behavior. This study highlights the unintended consequences of environmental policies.
Free Education's Impact on Schooling Outcomes: Direct Effects and Intra-household Spillovers
Naijia Guo, Shuangxin Wang, Junsen Zhang, Mar 05,
2025
This study estimates the direct and spillover effects of a free education program on educational outcomes in rural China. We find that although the program encourages more eligible children to attend secondary school, it also leads to a decrease in high school enrollment among ineligible girls with eligible siblings, as they are more likely to choose work instead. In the long run, males exposed to free education have more years of schooling than their non-exposed counterparts. However, such effect is not found among females. This disparity suggests that a gender-neutral policy may have an asymmetric effect between males and females because of spillover effects through intra-household resource allocation.
Pricing the Priceless: The Financing Cost of Biodiversity Conservation
Fukang Chen, Minhao Chen, Lin William Cong, Haoyu Gao, Jacopo Ponticelli, Feb 26,
2025
This study investigates the pricing of financial risks associated with biodiversity conservation, with a particular focus on the Green Shield Action, a major regulatory initiative launched in China in 2017 to enforce biodiversity preservation rules in national nature reserves. While the initiative improved biodiversity, it also significantly increased bond yields for municipalities that are home to these reserves, effectively raising the general cost of public capital. These effects were primarily driven by heightened default risks plausibly caused by transition costs from shutting down illegal economic activities within the reserves and additional public spending on biodiversity conservation, even when local governments raise the same amount of money. Furthermore, the study reveals that the biological benefits of these conservation policies were not adequately recognized or impounded into the prices by the capital markets.
Can Environmental Regulation Enhance Productivity? Evidence from China’s Industrial Sector
Yangsiyu Lu, Jacquelyn Pless, Feb 19,
2025
Our study also contributes to the broader discourse on industrial policy (see Juhász, Lane, and Rodrik 2023 for a recent review of related academic literature). As debates about green industrial policy gains traction in the U.S., Europe, and beyond, there is revived interest in developing a better understanding of how it might impact economic activity. Although economic growth and environmental regulation are often pitted against each other, our findings suggest that this need not be the case.
The Effects of a Multifaceted Poverty-Alleviation Program on Rural Income and Household Behavior in China
Rui Li, Hong Song, Jun Zhang, Junsen Zhang, Feb 12,
2025
This study examines the effects of a government-led, large-scale, multifaceted poverty-alleviation program on rural income in China. We find that the program has a positive impact on national key poor counties, with a 10.9% increase in rural income. This effect mainly arises via industrial support, agricultural development, and public service improvement. Strategies that are consistent with local comparative advantages and incentivize local officials to reduce poverty yield more significant effects. Household-level analyses suggest that the program changes household income and expenditure, and the effects are particularly substantial for the poorest households. The study provides novel insights and policy implications for China’s recent experience with poverty alleviation.
Consumer-Financed Fiscal Stimulus Evidence from Digital Coupons in China
Jing Ding, Lei Jiang, Lucy Msall, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Feb 05,
2025
In 2020, local governments in China began issuing digital coupons to stimulate spending in targeted categories such as restaurants and supermarkets. We find that the coupons caused large increases in spending of 3.1–3.3 yuan per yuan spent by the government. The large spending responses do not come from substitution away from non-targeted spending categories or from short-run intertemporal substitution. We conclude that digital coupons are a cost-effective way to provide targeted fiscal stimulus to specific sectors of the economy.
Exports in Disguise: Trade Rerouting during the US-China Trade War?
Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, Sung-Ju Wu, Bo Feng, Jan 22,
2025
We found that the level of rerouting varied significantly depending on the granularity of the measure used: 16.5% of Vietnamese exports to the US were rerouted at the product level, compared to just 1.7% at the firm level. Trade war tariffs led to increases in rerouting, but estimates were again significantly smaller for more granular measures, underscoring the importance of detailed microdata in formulating trade policy and measuring compliance.