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Free Education's Impact on Schooling Outcomes: Direct Effects and Intra-household Spillovers Naijia Guo, Shuangxin Wang, Junsen Zhang, Mar 05, 2025 This study estimates the direct and spillover effects of a free education program on educational outcomes in rural China. We find that although the program encourages more eligible children to attend secondary school, it also leads to a decrease in high school enrollment among ineligible girls with eligible siblings, as they are more likely to choose work instead. In the long run, males exposed to free education have more years of schooling than their non-exposed counterparts. However, such effect is not found among females. This disparity suggests that a gender-neutral policy may have an asymmetric effect between males and females because of spillover effects through intra-household resource allocation.
Pricing the Priceless: The Financing Cost of Biodiversity Conservation Fukang Chen, Minhao Chen, Lin William Cong, Haoyu Gao, Jacopo Ponticelli, Feb 26, 2025 This study investigates the pricing of financial risks associated with biodiversity conservation, with a particular focus on the Green Shield Action, a major regulatory initiative launched in China in 2017 to enforce biodiversity preservation rules in national nature reserves. While the initiative improved biodiversity, it also significantly increased bond yields for municipalities that are home to these reserves, effectively raising the general cost of public capital. These effects were primarily driven by heightened default risks plausibly caused by transition costs from shutting down illegal economic activities within the reserves and additional public spending on biodiversity conservation, even when local governments raise the same amount of money. Furthermore, the study reveals that the biological benefits of these conservation policies were not adequately recognized or impounded into the prices by the capital markets.
Can Environmental Regulation Enhance Productivity? Evidence from China’s Industrial Sector Yangsiyu Lu, Jacquelyn Pless, Feb 19, 2025 Our study also contributes to the broader discourse on industrial policy (see Juhász, Lane, and Rodrik 2023 for a recent review of related academic literature). As debates about green industrial policy gains traction in the U.S., Europe, and beyond, there is revived interest in developing a better understanding of how it might impact economic activity. Although economic growth and environmental regulation are often pitted against each other, our findings suggest that this need not be the case.
The Effects of a Multifaceted Poverty-Alleviation Program on Rural Income and Household Behavior in China Rui Li, Hong Song, Jun Zhang, Junsen Zhang, Feb 12, 2025 This study examines the effects of a government-led, large-scale, multifaceted poverty-alleviation program on rural income in China. We find that the program has a positive impact on national key poor counties, with a 10.9% increase in rural income. This effect mainly arises via industrial support, agricultural development, and public service improvement. Strategies that are consistent with local comparative advantages and incentivize local officials to reduce poverty yield more significant effects. Household-level analyses suggest that the program changes household income and expenditure, and the effects are particularly substantial for the poorest households. The study provides novel insights and policy implications for China’s recent experience with poverty alleviation.
Consumer-Financed Fiscal Stimulus Evidence from Digital Coupons in China Jing Ding, Lei Jiang, Lucy Msall, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Feb 05, 2025 In 2020, local governments in China began issuing digital coupons to stimulate spending in targeted categories such as restaurants and supermarkets. We find that the coupons caused large increases in spending of 3.1–3.3 yuan per yuan spent by the government. The large spending responses do not come from substitution away from non-targeted spending categories or from short-run intertemporal substitution. We conclude that digital coupons are a cost-effective way to provide targeted fiscal stimulus to specific sectors of the economy.
Exports in Disguise: Trade Rerouting during the US-China Trade War? Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, Sung-Ju Wu, Bo Feng, Jan 22, 2025 We found that the level of rerouting varied significantly depending on the granularity of the measure used: 16.5% of Vietnamese exports to the US were rerouted at the product level, compared to just 1.7% at the firm level. Trade war tariffs led to increases in rerouting, but estimates were again significantly smaller for more granular measures, underscoring the importance of detailed microdata in formulating trade policy and measuring compliance.
Bilateral Economies of Scope in International Trade Yao Amber Li, Sichuang Xu, Stephen R. Yeaple, Tengyu Zhao, Jan 15, 2025 This paper presents evidence that firms’ export and import decisions within the same foreign market are complementary, due to bilateral economies of scope that allow substantial cost savings when engaging in both activities. By quantifying these savings through a structural model, we show that bilateral economies of scope significantly enhance firms’ participation in international trade and amplify the effects of trade liberalization, offering new insights for policymakers and researchers.
Digital Distractions with Peer Influence: The Impact of Mobile App Usage on Academic and Labor Market Outcomes Panle Jia Barwick, Siyu Chen, Chao Fu, Teng Li, Jan 08, 2025 We present the first comprehensive evidence of how app usage affects academic performance and early career outcomes. App usage is contagious: a one standard deviation (around 3.5 hours per day) increase in roommates’ app usage raises an individual’s own app usage by 5.8%, with substantial heterogeneity across students. A one standard deviation increase in app usage reduces GPAs by 36.2% of a within-cohort-major standard deviation and lowers wages by 2.3%. The effect of roommates’ app usage is over half the size of an individual’s own usage effect. High-frequency GPS data reveal that high app usage crowds out time in study halls and increases late arrivals at and absences from lectures.
Firm-to-Firm Referrals Jing Cai, Wei Lin, Adam Szeidl, Dec 25, 2024 Referring suppliers to clients reshaped the supplier-client network and improved business performance.
Industrial Policy: Lessons from Shipbuilding Panle Jia Barwick, Myrto Kalouptsidi, Nahim Bin Zahur, Dec 18, 2024 The article discusses that although China's industrial policy (IP) in the shipbuilding industry significantly increased domestic shipbuilding production and global market share, it had limited effects on improving domestic welfare and led to inefficient allocation of resources.
Recent
How Liberalizing Trade with China Led to a Boom in International Students in the US Gaurav Khanna, Kevin Shih, Ariel Weinberger, Mingzhi Xu, Miaojie Yu, Aug 16, 2023 Focusing on China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, we show that Chinese cities with more exposure to trade liberalization sent more students to US universities.
Regional Variation of GDP per Head within China, 1080–1850: Implications for the Great Divergence Debate Stephen Broadberry, Hanhui Guan, Sep 28, 2022 We provide the first regional breakdown of GDP per head for China from the Song dynasty to the Qing, so that regions of similar size can be compared between Europe and Asia to establish the timing of the Great Divergence of living standards.
Combating Cross-Border Externalities Shiyi Chen, Joshua Graff-Zivin, Huanhuan Wang, Jiaxin Xiong, Sep 21, 2022 China implemented a pioneering policy in 2011, the Ecological Compensation Initiative (ECI), which establishes side payments between upstream and downstream provinces in the Xin’an River Basin.
Assessing and Addressing the Coronavirus-Induced Economic Crisis: Evidence from 1.5 Billion Sales Invoice Zhuo Chen, Pengfei Li, Li Liao, Zhengwei Wang, Aug 31, 2022 We probe the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent containment policies on business activities in China by exploiting big data on 1.5 billion sales invoices. The average drop in sales was between 23% and 35%, depending on firm size, for the 12-week period after the Wuhan lockdown.
Industrial Land Discount in China: A Public Finance Perspective Zhiguo He, Scott Nelson, Yang Su, Anthony Lee Zhang, Fudong Zhang, Jul 25, 2022 Local governments, which serve as monopolistic land sellers in China, face a trade-off when deciding to supply residential land versus industrial land. This trade-off is determined by the different time profiles of revenues from industrial and residential land sales, local governments’ financial constraints, and the extent of local governments’ tax revenue sharing with other levels of government.
Industry/Policy View Omnia Juncta in Uno: Foreign Powers and Trademark Protection in Shanghai’s Concession Era Laura Alfaro, Cathy Ge Bao, Maggie X. Chen, Junjie Hong, Claudia Steinwender, Jul 20, 2022 Trademarks, which identify the source of goods and services, account for the majority of intellectual property filings worldwide. We investigate how firms adapt to the introduction of trademark institutions by exploring a historical precedent: China’s trademark law of 1923, an unanticipated and disapproved response to end foreign privileges in China.
Dollar Funding Stresses in China Laura Kodres, Leslie Sheng Shen, Darrell Duffie, Jul 13, 2022 The need for US dollar funding during the financial stresses of March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic shocked markets, was evident in a number of countries (Avdjiev, Eren, and McGuire 2020; Bahaj and Reis 2020).
Serial Entrepreneurship in China Loren Brandt, Ruochen Dai, Gueorgui Kambourov, Kjetil Storesletten, Xiaobo Zhang, Jul 06, 2022 New firms have been an important engine of growth in the Chinese economy (Brandt, Van Biesebroeck, and Zhang 2012). Drawing on data on the universe of all firms in China, we study entrepreneurship and the creation of new firms in China through the lens of entrepreneurs who operate a series of firms over their lifetime, i.e., serial entrepreneurs (SE).
An Empirical Overview of Chinese Capital Market Grace Xing Hu, Jun Pan, Jiang Wang, Jun 29, 2022 We provide an empirical review of the Chinese capital market, focusing on the basic return and risk characteristics of its major asset classes, as well as a comparison to the US market. All major asset classes in China have significant higher volatilities than their counterparts in the US market, but they do not always yield larger returns. Small-company stocks, short-, medium-, and long-term treasury bonds outperform their US counterparts, while large stocks underperform and long-term enterprise bonds yield similar returns.
Share Pledging in China: Funding Listed Firms or Funding Entrepreneurship? Zhiguo He, Bibo Liu, Feifei Zhu, Jun 01, 2022 Our recent study analyzes the use of share pledging funds in the context of China. Survey evidence shows that a majority of the largest shareholders (67.3%) used pledging funds outside their listed firms, including financing their entrepreneurial activities.
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