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Structural Change and the Stability of Aggregate Employment in China
Wen Yao, Xiaodong Zhu, Oct 27, 2021In developed countries, aggregate employment has a strong positive correlation with aggregate output, and it is almost as volatile as output. In China, the correlation of aggregate employment and output is close to zero, and the volatility of aggregate employment is very low. We argue that the key to understanding the stability of aggregate employment in China is labor reallocation between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, and that the declining relative demand...
Feedback Trading and the Chinese Put Warrants Bubble
Neil D. Pearson, Zhishu Yang, Qi Zhang, Jul 27, 2022There was a bubble in the prices of put warrants traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during the summer of 2007. We use investor trading records from a large securities firm to show that put warrant investors engaged in a particular form of feedback trading. This feedback trading exacerbated an initial run-up in put warrant prices caused by a change in the stock transaction tax, and created the bubble.
Innovation versus imitation: Where all that Chinese R&D is going
Michael König, Zheng (Michael) Song, Kjetil Storesletten, Fabrizio Zilibotti, Jan 26, 2022China is aiming to become a technological innovation powerhouse by 2050, with Premier Li Keqiang recently announcing an increase in R&D investments by 7% for the next five years. But greater R&D investment is no guarantee of success. This column examines the effects of R&D investments by Chinese firms on aggregate productivity and growth.
Industrial Clusters, Networks, and Resilience of Firms to the Covid-19 Shock in China
Ruochen Dai, Dilip Mookherjee, Yingyue Quan, Xiaobo Zhang, Jan 06, 2021Both entry of new firms and performance of incumbents were less adversely affected by the Covid-19 shock in Chinese counties with a greater presence of industrial clusters. To explain these results, we find evidence of the role of two specific attributes of clusters: reliance on informal hometown-based entrepreneur networks and spatial proximity to suppliers and customers.
The Economic Impact of Distributing Financial Products on Third-Party Online Platforms
Claire Yurong Hong, Xiaomeng Lu, Jun Pan, Feb 26, 2020The emergence of third-party online platforms in intermediating financial products has been a new and exciting development in FinTech. We find that, in China post-platform, fund flows become markedly more sensitive to fund performance, and the net flow to the top 10 percent–performing funds more than triples their pre-platform level. In response, fund managers increase their risk taking to enhance...
