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Does Good Luck Make People Overconfident? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China

Huasheng Gao, Donghui Shi, Bin Zhao, Aug 01, 2018

We find that retail investors who win an allotment for an IPO subscription subsequently become more overconfident relative to retail investors who do not have an allotment. The former group subsequently trades more frequently and loses more money. Overall, our evidence indicates that the experience of good luck makes people more overconfident about their prospects.

The Role of Punctuation in the P2P Lending Market

Xiao Chen, Bihong Huang, Dezhu Ye, Apr 04, 2018

Using data from Renrendai, one of the largest P2P lending platforms in China, we investigate how the amount of punctuation used in loan descriptions influences the funding probability, borrowing rate, and default. The empirical evidence shows that the amount of punctuation is negatively associated with the funding probability and borrowing rate. We propose that the usage of punctuation affects the readability of a loan description and reflects borrowers’ self-control and cognitive ability.

Hayek, Local Information, and the Decentralization of Chinese State-owned Enterprises

Lixin Colin Xu, May 23, 2018

Hayek (1945) predicts that where local information is important, the organization of production should be decentralized. This prediction is tested and supported in the context of the decentralization of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs). SOEs are more likely to decentralize with increasing distance from the seat of the oversight government. This likelihood is especially strong when performance heterogeneity is greater and/or transportation costs are higher.

Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks

Yu Shi, Robert Townsend, Wu Zhu, Sep 25, 2019

Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can propagate corporate shareholders' credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries investment by 1% of their tangible fixed asset value, which accounts for 71% (7%) of the median (average) investment rate among these firms...

Impacts of Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction

Kaiji Chen, Haoyu Gao, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha, Dec 02, 2020

China’s 2009 stimulus presents an ideal case for exploring the impacts of monetary-fiscal interaction on credit allocation and investment. During this stimulus period, monetary stimulus itself did not favor SOEs over non-SOEs in credit access. Fiscal expansion, however, enhanced the monetary transmission to bank credit that was allocated to local government financing vehicles...