A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High Frequency Transaction Data
Haiqiang Chen, Wenlan Qian, Qiang Wen, May 26, 2021Based on daily transaction data in 214 cities and the difference-in-differences method, we document that daily offline consumption fell by 32%, or 18.57 million RMB per city, during the twelve-week period after China’s COVID-19 outbreak in late January 2020. This implies that China’s offline consumption decreased by over 1.22 trillion RMB in the three-month post-outbreak period, or 1.2% of China’s 2019 GDP. Our estimates suggest a significant economic benefit...
Outward FDI and Domestic Input Distortions: Evidence from Chinese Firms
Cheng Chen, Wei Tian, Miaojie Yu, Sep 08, 2021A recent study shows that domestic input distortions faced by private firms in China have generated extra incentives for those firms to invest and produce abroad. This finding helps explain an astonishing increase in China’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows since the financial crisis.
Excessive Issuance of New Funds in China and Implications for Investor Protection
Shuai Ye, Jinfan Zhang, Kaixuan Zheng, Jun 25, 2025The Chinese mutual fund industry is only one-tenth the size of its US counterpart, but the number of funds in China has surpassed that of the US. Our study shows that such a large number of funds is unhealthy: managers issue new funds repetitively with different custodian banks, resulting in the average manager overseeing 2.7 funds. Managers shift profits to new funds in order to attract more flows. Among funds under the same manager, new funds have higher returns than old funds, spurring concerns over investor protection.
Employment Protection and Corporate Cash Holdings: Evidence from China’s Labor Contract Law
Chenyu Cui, Kose John, Jiaren Pang, Haibin Wu, Oct 13, 2021We examine whether and how employment protection influences corporate cash holdings using Chinese firm-level data. Our empirical results show that labor-intensive firms in China significantly increased their cash holdings following the enactment of China’s Labor Contract Law. Further analyses suggest that the results are generally consistent with a “labor adjustment costs” channel: employment protection...
Overpricing in Municipal Bond Markets and the Unintended Consequences of Regulatory Measures: Evidence from China
Laura Xiaolei Liu, Qiao Liu, Xiaoyu Liu, Ni Zhu, Dec 03, 2024Chinese municipal bonds are considerably overpriced in the primary market, leading regulators to set a lower bound on the issuance yield spread. This paper investigates the underlying reasons for this overpricing and evaluates the effects of implementing restrictions on yield spreads. Our findings indicate that underwriters may inflate prices to receive undisclosed benefits from local governments, such as local treasury cash deposits. We further show that the lower bounds severely impede price discovery in the primary municipal bond market. Even bonds not restricted by the lower limit are priced at the reference spread, exacerbating overpricing of riskier bonds. Local governments exploit these fixed prices by increasing the bond issuance amount and extending bond maturity. Our findings suggest that regulatory interference in pricing can have unintended consequences for pricing efficiency and that attempts to rectify mispricing may result in even more severe mispricing.
