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Exporting out of Agriculture: The Effects of the China Shock in China

Jessica Leight, Jan 01, 2020

This paper analyzes the effect of China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization on structural transformation at the local level, exploiting cross-sectional variation in tariff uncertainty faced by county economies pre-2001. Using a new panel of 1,800 Chinese counties from 1996 to 2013, we find that counties more exposed to the reduction in tariff uncertainty post-accession are characterized by increasing exports...

Improving Regulation for Innovation: Evidence from China’s Pharmaceutical Industry

Ruixue Jia, Xiao Ma, Jianan Yang, Yiran Zhang, Mar 06, 2024

In 2015, China revamped its pharmaceutical regulations, drawing inspiration from the US, to accelerate drug approvals. Using data at the drug and firm levels during 2011–2021, this study reveals three key outcomes.

Throwing Good Money after Bad: Zombie Lending and the Supply Chain Contagion of Firm Exit

Yun Dai, Xuchao Li, Dinghua Liu, Jiankun Lu, Jan 19, 2022

Zombie lending to downstream firms does not reduce the exit likelihood of upstream firms. Worse, it distorts efficiency-based firm exit in upstream industries. The exit distortion effect works through the trade credit chain and is more profound in industries with stricter financial constraints and tighter supply chain connections

Government Deleveraging and Non-SOE Liquidity Squeeze: Evidence from Subnational Debt and Government Contractors

Jiayin Hu, Songrui Liu, Yang Yao, Zhu Zong, May 15, 2024

China's deleveraging policies have inadvertently exacerbated the financial liquidity pressure on non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) contractors, revealing the potential adverse impact of government fiscal consolidation on private enterprises.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High Frequency Transaction Data

Haiqiang Chen, Wenlan Qian, Qiang Wen, May 26, 2021

Based on daily transaction data in 214 cities and the difference-in-differences method, we document that daily offline consumption fell by 32%, or 18.57 million RMB per city, during the twelve-week period after China’s COVID-19 outbreak in late January 2020. This implies that China’s offline consumption decreased by over 1.22 trillion RMB in the three-month post-outbreak period, or 1.2% of China’s 2019 GDP. Our estimates suggest a significant economic benefit...