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The Value of Big Data in a Pandemic
Kairong Xiao, May 05, 2021This article summarizes a study of the economic and public health effects of the Health Code app in China. By exploiting the staggered implementation of this technology across 322 Chinese cities, this study finds that the Health Code app significantly reduced virus transmission and facilitated economic recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic. A macroeconomic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model calibrated to the micro-level estimates shows...
How Do Public Pensions Affect Eldercare Mode and Son Preference? An Empirical Study on the New Rural Pension Scheme in China
Naijia Guo, Wei Huang, Ruixin Wang, Dec 11, 2024How do public pension schemes reshape eldercare and social norms with son preference? Using variations in the timing of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) across rural Chinese counties..
The Pre-Announcement Drift in China: Government Meetings and Macro Announcements
Jun Pan, Qing Peng, Mar 20, 2024Confirming Chinese equity market is policy-driven, this study reveals a significant pre-Govt return before top government meetings, akin to the US pre-FOMC drift. It highlights the market's anticipation of these events and their impact on asset pricing, underscoring the centralized financial system in China.
Digital Dividends? Rural E-Commerce and the Urban-Rural Income Gap
Lei Wang, Yongming Sun, Oct 15, 2025We examine the impact of China’s Rural E-Commerce Comprehensive Demonstration (RECD) project on the urban-rural income gap. Using county-level data from 2006 to 2022 and a time-varying difference-in-differences design, we find that participation in the RECD project led to a significant reduction in urban-rural income disparity. The effects were especially pronounced in less-developed regions, poverty-designated counties, and areas with weaker digital infrastructure and gains were disproportionately concentrated among rural households. These “biased” digital dividends contrast with market-driven e-commerce development, such as Taobao Villages, which tended to exacerbate inequality.
Beyond the Fundamentals: How Media-Driven Narratives Influence Cross-Border Capital Flows
Isha Agarwal, Wentong Chen, Eswar Prasad, Apr 02, 2025We provide the first empirical evidence on how media-driven narratives influence cross-border institutional investment flows. Applying natural language processing techniques to 1.5 million newspaper articles, we document substantial cross-country variation in sentiment and risk indices constructed from domestic media narratives about China in 15 countries. These narratives significantly affect portfolio flows, even after controlling for macroeconomic and financial fundamentals. This impact is smaller for investors with greater familiarity or private information about China and larger during periods of heightened uncertainty. Political and environmental narratives are as influential as economic narratives. Investors react more sharply to negative narratives than positive ones.
