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Interest rates and exchange rates when the money supply goes up

Saleem Bahaj, Ricardo Reis, May 21, 2025

The power of monetary policy to affect interest rates and exchange rates depends on the downward slope of the demand function. This column uses the Chinese experiment with parallel currencies to study the impact of sudden increases in money supply. The authors find causal evidence that increases in money supply lead to currency depreciations, and use this to quantify the interest elasticity of reserve demand. The results can be used to understand how the People’s Bank of China maintained the peg between the mainland and parallel currencies.

Destination-Specific Export Expansions and Their Impact on Education and Long-Term Outcomes in China

Junsen Zhang, Kang Zhou, Jul 17, 2024

This article discusses that export expansions to wealthy countries significantly increased high school enrollment rates in specific regions and among certain groups in China, but this impact did not translate into an increased prevalence of higher education. Instead, it had long-term effects on employment and fertility outcomes for the affected cohorts.

Demand for Retirement Insurance: What Do People Want?

Cheng Wan, Hazel Bateman, Hanming Fang, Katja Hanewald, Oct 02, 2024

This article discusses the diversity and preference variations in the demand for retirement insurance among urban residents in China, particularly the high demand for health-related insurance such as critical illness (CI) and long-term care (LTC) insurance, and how individual financial circumstances, risk appetites, and bequest motives significantly influence their choice of retirement insurance products.

Environmental Externalities, Product Attributes, and Market Power: Implications for Government Subsidies

Panle Jia Barwick, Hyuk-soo Kwon, Shanjun Li, Sep 18, 2024

The article discusses how attribute-based subsidy (ABS) designs lead to higher product quality and more effectively mitigate market power than uniform subsidies, albeit with a modest environmental cost.

The Externalities of ESG Disclosure

Yi Jiang, Ya Kang, Hao Liang, Jul 24, 2024

This article discusses that China's mandatory Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) disclosure policies have led firms to increase their donations for poverty alleviation, yet paradoxically have also resulted in higher pollution levels, thereby highlighting the potential environmental negative externalities that can arise from the government's mild steering of corporate behavior through disclosure mandates.