A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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“Golden Ages”: A Tale of the Labor Markets in China and the United States
Hanming Fang, Xincheng Qiu, Dec 15, 2021We examine the Chinese growth experience in the last three decades through the lens of the labor market, focusing on evolving cross-sectional earnings distributions. We contrast the Chinese labor market with that of the United States and provide an interesting tale of the two labor markets over the last 30 years.
What You Import Matters for Productivity Growth: Experience from Chinese Manufacturing Firms
Jiawei Mo, Larry D. Qiu, Hongsong Zhang, Xiaoyu Dong, Dec 22, 2021We find that capital import has a substantially larger productivity effect than intermediates import, by generating significant long-term productivity gains through R&D-capital synergy, R&D-inducing, and direct dynamic productivity effects. Our findings highlight the importance of tariff structure in tariff liberalization: the change in tariff structure explains 18% of the productivity gains following China’s WTO accession.
Debt Management and Strategic Interactions in Top-down Bureaucracy: Evidence from China
Xi Qu, Zhiwei Xu, Jinxiang Yu, Apr 30, 2025The Chinese central government implemented a series of measures to establish a top-to-bottom debt ceiling management system starting in 2015. Under this regulatory framework, public debt issuance for a prefecture city is subject to a ceiling (quota) determined through a hierarchical procedure. Based on a comprehensive dataset, we investigate what factors determine the allocations of debt ceiling to prefectural cities in China after the debt management reform. We find that the distributional outcome of the debt ceilings relies on the bilateral interactions of local and their superior governments. We also estimate the effect of ceiling allocation on the real economy, as well as the potential risk associated with implicit debt accumulation.
Feedback Trading and the Chinese Put Warrants Bubble
Neil D. Pearson, Zhishu Yang, Qi Zhang, Jul 27, 2022There was a bubble in the prices of put warrants traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during the summer of 2007. We use investor trading records from a large securities firm to show that put warrant investors engaged in a particular form of feedback trading. This feedback trading exacerbated an initial run-up in put warrant prices caused by a change in the stock transaction tax, and created the bubble.
Magnification of the “China Shock” Through the U.S. Housing Market
Yuan Xu, Hong Ma, Robert Feenstra, Jan 22, 2020The “China shock” operated in part through the U.S. housing market, which is one important reason the China shock was as big as it was. If housing prices had not responded at all to the China shock, then the total employment effect would have been reduced by more than one-half. Even when fully recognizing that housing prices responded to the China shock, the independent employment effect of the China shock is still reduced by around 30%.
