A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Do Interest Rates Play a Major Role in Monetary Policy Transmission in China?
Gunes Kamber, Madhusudan Mohanty, Aug 17, 2018We explore the role of interest rates in monetary policy transmission in China in the context of its multiple instrument setting. In doing so, we construct a new series of monetary policy surprises using information from high frequency Chinese financial market data around major monetary policy announcements. We find that a contractionary monetary policy surprise increases interest rates and significantly reduces inflation and economic activity. Our findings provide further support to recent studies suggesting that monetary policy transmission in China has become increasingly similar to that in advanced economies.
Can Information Influence the Social Insurance Participation of China’s Rural Migrants?
John Giles, Xin Meng, Sen Xue, Guochang Zhao, Apr 10, 2019We use a randomized information intervention to shed light on whether poor understanding of social insurance—in terms of both the enrollment process and the associated costs and benefits—drives the relatively low rates of participation in urban health insurance and pension programs among China's rural-urban migrants. Among workers without a contract...
Verifying China’s COVID-19 Recovery Using the FRBSF China CAT
Remy Beauregard, John G. Fernald, Mark M. Spiegel, Dec 23, 2020Using the FRBSF China Cyclical Activity Tracker, we confirm the robustness of China’s recovery from the COVID-19 downturn. The FRBSF “China CAT” estimates that first quarter 2020 China GDP plunged 6.4 standard deviations below its detrended level a year earlier, but by the end of the third quarter, China economic activity had recovered to only 0.1 standard deviations below trend. As such, the FRBSF China CAT index validates the accuracy...
The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China
Ding Ding, Weicheng Lian, Oct 09, 2019Residential investment has been a key growth engine for China in the last two decades. Total housing investment grew from about 4 percent of GDP in 1997 to a peak of 15 percent of GDP in 2014, with residential investment accounting for more than two-thirds of it. Our analysis indicates that structural changes in the Chinese economy that led to rebalancing toward consumption...
Unequal Transition: The Widening Wealth Gap amidst China’s Rapid Growth
Yangtian Jiang, Yu Zheng, Lijun Zhu, Nov 08, 2023We examine the drivers of rising wealth inequality in urban China since 1995. We highlight the intertwined nature of growth and equity during China’s transition toward a market-oriented economy.
