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Local Government Implicit Debt and the Pricing of LGFV Bonds

Laura Xiaolei Liu, Yuanzhen Lyu, Fan Yu, Jun 22, 2022

To examine the implicit guarantee provided by Chinese local governments to local government financing vehicles (LGFV), we create a proxy for local governments’ implicit debt ratio and find it correlated with the credit spread of LGFV bonds.

The Hidden Cost of Trade Liberalization: Input Tariff Shocks and Worker Health in China

Haichao Fan, Faqin Lin, Shu Lin, Jun 24, 2020

Can intermediate input trade liberalization affect worker health in a developing country like China, and if so, how? Do the impacts differ between skilled and unskilled workers? What are the welfare implications of input tariff reductions once health factors are considered? Professors Haichao Fan of Fudan University, Faqin Lin of China Agricultural University, and Shu Lin of the Chinese University of Hong Kong develop...

Income Inequality among Old Chinese

Katja Hanewald, Ruo Jia, Zining Liu, Oct 16, 2019

Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1991–2015, we decompose the income inequality among old Chinese and compare the income inequality between old households and young households. We develop an OLG model and a new empirical method to test how initial socioeconomic differences transmit to income inequality in the working years and then in old age. We find that the urban-rural gap and educational differences...

Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China

Pauline Rossi, Yun Xiao, Mar 24, 2021

To what extent and through which mechanisms are couples influenced by others when choosing their own family size? Recent research exploits exemptions in China’s family planning policies to show that conformism and competition drove the diffusion of small families, and hence accelerated the fertility transition in China.

Does Good Luck Make People Overconfident? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China

Huasheng Gao, Donghui Shi, Bin Zhao, Aug 01, 2018

We find that retail investors who win an allotment for an IPO subscription subsequently become more overconfident relative to retail investors who do not have an allotment. The former group subsequently trades more frequently and loses more money. Overall, our evidence indicates that the experience of good luck makes people more overconfident about their prospects.