A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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China’s Mobility Barriers and Employment Allocations
Liwa Rachel Ngai, Christopher Pissarides, Jin Wang, Mar 07, 2018Despite reforms to the hukou household registration system and the very large rural-urban migration experienced in China, rural households are still experiencing a risk of losing their land allocation if they migrate. We argue that this risk leads to an inefficient rental market with low rents and is an impediment to migration, with consequent over-employment in agriculture and low productivity.
Resolving Zombie Firms is Key for Sustaining Growth in China
Yiping Huang, Yuyan Tan, Jun 28, 2017China's non-financial borrowing continued to expand though the government vowed to take deleveraging among its top five policy priorities in 2016. Current member of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee, Prof. Yiping Huang of Peking University, and his co-author Yuyan Tan of Peking University argue that resolving Zombie firms is a key for China’s deleveraging. The rising share of Zombies firms in China after 2010 reduces the financial efficiency and brings in financial market risks. Dealing with the Zombie firms is now critical for sustaining China’s long-run economic growth and managing its financial stability.
The Two-Pillar Policy for the RMB from December 2015 to May 2017
Urban J. Jermann, Bin Wei, Vivian Yue, Aug 16, 2017We document that since December 2015 the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has followed a “two-pillar” exchange rate policy that aims to achieve both stability and flexibility. Based on a no-arbitrage model and options price data we estimate the credibility of the policy as well as its impact on the RMB/USD exchange rate. The model was able to correctly forecast the end of the two-pillar policy in May 2017.
Bilateral Trade and Shocks in Political Relations: Evidence from China
Yingxin Du, Jiandong Ju, Carlos D. Ramirez, Xi Yao, Mar 14, 2018To what extent do political relations between countries affect their economic exchange? Using evidence of China’s relations with other major powers during the period of 1990 to 2013, Yingxin Du, Jiandong Ju, Carlos D. Ramirez, and Xi Yao point out the time-aggregation bias in the existing empirical research and provide insights on the relationship between political shocks and trade.
Faking Trade for Capital Control Evasion: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rate Arbitrage in China
Renliang Liu, Liugang Sheng, Jian Wang, Nov 25, 2020We examine whether firms over-report international trade to evade capital controls for foreign exchange arbitrage, by specifically testing whether the aggregate bilateral trade data gap between trading partners is positively (negatively) correlated with the exchange rate spread when the spread is positive (negative). At the disaggregated level, we also employ Benford’s law to detect trade data manipulations...
