A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Evaluating the Burden of a U.S.-China Trade War
Meixin Guo, Lin Lu, Liugang Sheng, Miaojie Yu, Apr 25, 2018Trade disputes between the United States and China greatly intensified recently as the two countries announced a 25 percent tariff hike on $50 billion worth of products imported from each other, raising the risk of a trade war between the two giant trading economies. Based on a standard multi-sector, multi-country general equilibrium trade model with input-output linkages, we evaluate the cost of a trade war in which the United States and China both increase their tariffs to 45% for all imports from each other. We find that the United States would be more likely to be the bigger loser and that the cost for China would be moderate.
Credit Expansion and Allocation Dynamics under Economic Stimulus
Lin William Cong, Jacopo Ponticelli, Sep 13, 2017We study credit allocation across firms and its real effects during China’s economic stimulus plan of 2009-2010 using loan-level data from the 19 largest Chinese banks matched with firm-level data on manufacturing firms. We find that the stimulus-driven credit expansion significantly affected firm borrowing, investment, and employment. The plan disproportionately favored state-owned firms and firms with a lower marginal product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation that characterized China’s high growth before 2008.
Industry/Policy View Taxation Trends and Challenges in a Digital Economy — Implications for the People’s Republic of China
Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, Sep 11, 2019The digital economy is growing rapidly across the globe and, among developing countries, the PRC is a leader. Despite its promise, the global digital economy also poses many challenges, including tax base erosion and profit shifting. Given the initial efforts by the PRC to address these challenges, this post recommends that the country continues...
Centralization or Decentralization? The Evolution of State-Ownership in China
Franklin Allen, Junhui Cai, Xian Gu, Jun Qian, Linda Zhao, Wu Zhu, Apr 05, 2023We developed an SOE index for all 40 million firms in China from 1990 to 2017 based on the dynamic EquiNet. This quantitative index is solely based on equity investments and thus clears up the mysteries of other self-report measures.
Book Synopsis Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China’s Growth
Scott Rozelle, Natalie Hell, Jun 02, 2021Ｎo assessment of China's growth is complete without considering the implications of having hundreds of millions of underemployed people in China's economy for the foreseeable future. The bottom line is that China needs to build on its recent efforts to boost rural education, health and nutrition, and early childhood development, and do so at a pace and intensity that recognizes these are potentially among the biggest problems the nation faces.
