A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Long-run Trends in China’s Urban Unemployment and Labor Force Participation
Shuaizhang Feng, Yingyao Hu, Robert Moffitt, Jul 19, 2017Official unemployment rate in China is based on registered unemployment figures, but the official figures are likely underestimates of the true unemployment rates because many unemployed people are not qualified to register with government agencies and even those who are qualified may choose not to for various reasons. Shuaizhang Feng of Jinan University, and Yingyao Hu and Robert Moffitt, both of Johns Hopkins University, discuss their new effort to provide the first comprehensive picture of China’s labor market for the period 1988-2009 using Urban Household Survey (UHS) data administered by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Industry/Policy View How Does Monetary Policy Affect the Asset Management Industry? Evidence from China’s Fund Managers
John Ammer, John Rogers, Gang Wang, Yang Yu, Jul 15, 2020We conduct a novel systematic textual analysis of the discussion in the quarterly reports of China fund managers, from which we infer their near-term expectations for Chinese monetary policy. We show that this aggregate index of manager expectations performs well as a forecast of Chinese monetary policy, that fund managers act on these expectations, and that correctly anticipating shifts in policy improves fund...
Capital Regulations, Bank Risk-Taking, and Monetary Policy in China
Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, Yuchao Peng, Zhiwei Xu, Nov 18, 2020China implemented Basel III in 2013 and tightened bank capital regulations. Empirical evidence shows that the new regulations significantly reduced bank risk-taking following monetary policy easing. To meet the tightened capital requirements, banks respond to a balance-sheet expansion by raising the share of lending to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that are perceived as low-risk borrowers under government...
China’s Overwhelming Contribution to Scientific Publications
Qingnan Xie, Richard B. Freeman, Sep 19, 2018That China, one of the lowest income countries in the world at the turn of the 21st century, became a super-power in scientific knowledge in less than two decades is a remarkable development in the history of science. The way China deploys its newly developed scientific resources will drive the direction of science and technology into the foreseeable future and the direction of our increasingly knowledge-based economy.
Credit Expansion and Allocation Dynamics under Economic Stimulus
Lin William Cong, Jacopo Ponticelli, Sep 13, 2017We study credit allocation across firms and its real effects during China’s economic stimulus plan of 2009-2010 using loan-level data from the 19 largest Chinese banks matched with firm-level data on manufacturing firms. We find that the stimulus-driven credit expansion significantly affected firm borrowing, investment, and employment. The plan disproportionately favored state-owned firms and firms with a lower marginal product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation that characterized China’s high growth before 2008.
