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Homemade Foreign Trading

Zhiguo He, Yuehan Wang, Xiaoquan Zhu, Jul 26, 2023

Our recent study provides evidence that Chinese mainland insiders tend to evade see-through surveillance by round-tripping via the Stock Connect program.

The Value of Big Data in a Pandemic

Kairong Xiao, May 05, 2021

This article summarizes a study of the economic and public health effects of the Health Code app in China. By exploiting the staggered implementation of this technology across 322 Chinese cities, this study finds that the Health Code app significantly reduced virus transmission and facilitated economic recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic. A macroeconomic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model calibrated to the micro-level estimates shows...

Let a Small Bank Fail: Implicit Non-guarantee and Financial Contagion

Liyuan Liu, Xianshuang Wang, Zhen Zhou, Nov 27, 2024

The research findings indicate that after the failure of a small bank, regulatory authorities did not fully bail out all creditors as had been the norm, and this policy shift affected the funding costs and market confidence of banks with lower systemic importance (SU).

Interest rates and exchange rates when the money supply goes up

Saleem Bahaj, Ricardo Reis, May 21, 2025

The power of monetary policy to affect interest rates and exchange rates depends on the downward slope of the demand function. This column uses the Chinese experiment with parallel currencies to study the impact of sudden increases in money supply. The authors find causal evidence that increases in money supply lead to currency depreciations, and use this to quantify the interest elasticity of reserve demand. The results can be used to understand how the People’s Bank of China maintained the peg between the mainland and parallel currencies.

Monetary Policy in China: A Trade-Off Between Transmission and Stability?

Kaiji Chen, Yiqing Xiao, Tao Zha, Sep 24, 2025

We explore how China’s shift toward interest-rate-based monetary policy faces an inherent trade-off. When non-state banks turn to wholesale funding, monetary policy easing is transmitted more effectively to productive firms, but the banking system also becomes more fragile in economic downturns. Our findings suggest that China’s regulators must strike a careful balance between achieving policy effectiveness and safeguarding financial stability.