A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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A Tale of Tier 3 Cities
Kenneth Rogoff, Yuanchen Yang, Mar 29, 2023This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates, and price developments by city tier in China.
China’s Producer Price Reflation in 2016–2017: Capacity Cuts or Recovering Aggregate Demand?
Linxi Chen, Ding Ding, Rui C. Mano, Nov 23, 2018In late 2015, the Chinese government launched a multi-year plan to reduce capacity in the coal and steel industries. Around the same time, producer price inflation in China started to pick up strongly after being trapped in negative territory for 4½ years. What is behind this broad reflation—cuts in coal and steel capacity or a strengthening of aggregate demand...
The Impact of the China Tire Safeguard
Sunghoon Chung, Joonhyung Lee, Oct 23, 2019This column evaluates the impact of the China tire safeguard on the US tire industry. Contrary to claims made by the US government, we find that total employment and average wages in the tire industry were unaffected by the safeguard. This result is not surprising as we find that Chinese tires have been completely diverted to other exporting countries due to the strong presence of multinational corporations in the world tire market. On the other hand, US domestic tire prices increased by up to 10% during the safeguard period...
Faking Trade for Capital Control Evasion: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rate Arbitrage in China
Renliang Liu, Liugang Sheng, Jian Wang, Nov 25, 2020We examine whether firms over-report international trade to evade capital controls for foreign exchange arbitrage, by specifically testing whether the aggregate bilateral trade data gap between trading partners is positively (negatively) correlated with the exchange rate spread when the spread is positive (negative). At the disaggregated level, we also employ Benford’s law to detect trade data manipulations...
Household Finance in China
Russell Cooper, Guozhong Zhu, Sep 20, 2017We study household financial choices in China and compare them with those in the US. We estimate a structural model where the two countries differ in terms of preferences and institutional arrangements. In the structural estimation, we take into account the effects of important structural changes in the Chinese economy between 1990-2000.
