Peak China Housing? Kenneth Rogoff, Yuanchen Yang, Sep 16, 2020
Peak China Housing? Kenneth Rogoff, Yuanchen Yang, Sep 16, 2020 China’s real estate market has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion. This paper argues, however, that even before the COVID-19 shock, a decades-long housing boom had given rise to price misalignments and regional supply-demand mismatches, making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable. Based on input-output analysis and benchmarking against other economies, we estimate the size of China’s real estate–related activities to be 29% of the economy and conclude that the sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock.
VoxChina Covid-19 Forum (Second Edition): China’s Post-Lockdown Economic Recovery VoxChina, Apr 18, 2020 The lockdowns induced by Covid-19 have led to unprecedented challenges to economies across the globe. The second edition of the VoxChina Covid-19 Forum focuses on China’s post-lockdown economic recovery, with three presentations that are based on data analysis of small businesses, consumption, e-commerce, and beyond, each for 15 minutes. There will be 30 minutes of Q&As.
VoxChina Covid-19 Forum (First Edition): Public Health and Public Policy VoxChina, Apr 11, 2020 Covid-19 poses unprecedented challenges to the global health and global economy. We are pleased to initiate a series of Covid-19 Public Health and Public Policy Virtual Forums to discuss the impact and policy responses to Covid-19.
The Value of Childhood Vaccination in China Hamid Reza Oskorouchi, Alfonso Sousa-Poza, David Bloom, Sep 09, 2020 Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) we estimated the effect of childhood vaccination on later-life schooling and cognitive abilities of elderly Chinese. We found that being vaccinated in childhood increases schooling by one year and improves numeracy and episodic memory scores by 6 percent on average. These encouraging results confirm the powerful and long-lasting benefits of childhood vaccination.
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, Jenny Tang, Sep 02, 2020 We study the impact of recent tariffs on US prices at the border and at the store. Our results imply that, so far, the tariffs’ incidence has fallen in large part on US firms.