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Understanding the Evolution of China’s Production and Trade Patterns

Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, Vivian Yue, Oct 09, 2024

The article discusses how capital accumulation has driven China's transition towards capital-intensive industries, while labor-biased productivity growth has helped China maintain a competitive edge in labor-intensive sectors.

Does VAT Have Higher Tax Compliance Than a Turnover Tax? Evidence from China

Jianjun Li, Xuan Wang, Jan 15, 2020

We study the effects of compliance with the value-added tax (VAT) by exploiting the reform that replaced business tax (BT) with VAT in China beginning in 2012. We find that replacing the BT with VAT significantly increases the reported sales and costs for treated firms, and the impact is much stronger for business-to-business (B2B) transactions than for business-to-consumer (B2C) transactions. Buyers in B2B transactions...

Human-Capital Externalities in China

Edward L. Glaeser, Ming Lu, Oct 10, 2024

This paper provides evidence of heterogeneous human-capital externality using CHIP 2002, 2007, and 2013 data from urban China. After instrumenting city-level education using the number of relocated university departments across cities in the 1950s, one additional year of city-level education increases individual hourly wages by 22.0 percent, more than twice the OLS estimate. Human-capital externality is greater for all groups of urban residents in the instrumental variables estimation.

The Reference Effect of Government Bonds on Corporate Borrowing Costs

Mark J. Flannery, Claire Yurong Hong, Baolian Wang, May 29, 2019

It has been widely argued that government bonds can be used as a reference point for pricing corporate bonds. This “reference” role can reduce the cost of corporate borrowing. The authors study this question by examining a unique experiment in China. China issued two sovereign bonds denominated in U.S. dollars (USD) in October 2017, the first...

Will robots replace workers? Lessons from China

Osea Giuntella, Yi Lu, Tianyi Wang, Aug 06, 2025

Robot adoption has skyrocketed in China in the last decade. New research finds that this exposure has led to a decline in employment and wages, influencing workers’ training and retirement decisions. How can developing countries prepare themselves for the artificial intelligence revolution?