A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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Does Good Luck Make People Overconfident? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China
Huasheng Gao, Donghui Shi, Bin Zhao, Aug 01, 2018We find that retail investors who win an allotment for an IPO subscription subsequently become more overconfident relative to retail investors who do not have an allotment. The former group subsequently trades more frequently and loses more money. Overall, our evidence indicates that the experience of good luck makes people more overconfident about their prospects.
In the Shadows of the Government: Relationship-building during Political Turnovers
Hanming Fang, Zhe Li, Nianhang Xu, Hongjun Yan, Mar 06, 2019We document that firms use two instruments to build relationships with local government officials in China: “perk spending” and personnel changes. Following a turnover in the positions of Party Secretary or Mayor of a city in China, firms (especially private firms) headquartered in that city significantly increase their perk spending...
Anxiety or Pain? The Impact of Tariffs and Uncertainty on Chinese Firms in the Trade War
Felipe Benguria, Jaerim Choi, Deborah Swenson, Mingzhi Xu, Nov 04, 2020We analyze the firm-level impacts of the US-China trade war since it is of great economic importance to understand how the unprecedented and dramatic increases in the import and export tariffs confronting Chinese firms affected the firm-level policy environment and firm operational outcomes. To contribute to this effort, we study how increases in US tariffs and Chinese retaliatory tariffs raised Chinese firms’ trade policy...
What Do a Billion Observations Say about Distance and Relationship Lending?
Haoyu Gao, Hong Ru, Xiaoguang Yang, Nov 07, 2018Using big data of the locations of bank branches and borrowers in China, we document a non-trivial amount of distant lending. The inter-firm network helps banks collect soft information which facilitates the distant lending. We also use novel data of monthly internal loan rating changes to directly measure soft information and find that banks have better soft information and predict delinquent events more accurately for borrowers connected via the inter-firm network.
The Effect of Pollution and Heat on the Productivity of High-Skill Public Sector Workers in China
Matthew E. Kahn, Pei Li, May 22, 2019The quality of governance depends on public sector worker productivity. We use micro data from China to document that judges are less productive on polluted days. We find that public sector productivity elasticities are larger than the published estimates of private sector productivity elasticities with respect to pollution.
