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Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China’s Pre-WTO Accession

George Alessandria, Shafaat Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Dec 04, 2019

We propose a method to estimate the perceived likelihood of an uncertain increase in tariffs using the rise in trade flows in advance of the uncertainty resolution. We apply this framework to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.’s annual renewal of China’s most-favored-nation (MFN) status in the 1990s. By matching the observed rise in imports in advance of U.S. Congress votes on the renewal, we find that the probability...

The Cost of China’s IPO Regulations on the Functional Efficiency of its Financial System

Charles M. C. Lee, Yuanyu Qu, Tao Shen, Nov 01, 2017

In sharp contrast with the market-and-disclosure based system in the US, IPOs in China are subject to strict regulatory rationing and control. We investigate the pricing implications of China’s IPO regulations for its publicly listed companies. We find that these regulations will give rise to significant market frictions with economic consequences for the prices, returns, and even investment decisions of China’s publicly listed companies.

Market Expanding or Market Stealing? Competition with Network Effects in Bike-Sharing

Guangyu Cao, Ginger Zhe Jin, Xi Weng, Li-An Zhou, Jan 16, 2019

Positive network effects may lead to winner-takes-all in some markets. The column analyses dockless bike-sharing in China to show instead how an incumbent can benefit from positive spillovers from a competitor’s entry. In the case of bike-sharing, consumers multi-home, the market exhibits positive network effects, and investment by two firms is more cost-efficient than investment by one.

State Versus Market: China’s Infrastructure Investment

Shuoge Qian, Hong Ru, Wei Xiong, Mar 13, 2024

In 2005, the Chinese government launched the landmark “36 Clauses” reform, marking a critical step toward forging a more favorable market environment.

Will robots replace workers? Lessons from China

Osea Giuntella, Yi Lu, Tianyi Wang, Aug 06, 2025

Robot adoption has skyrocketed in China in the last decade. New research finds that this exposure has led to a decline in employment and wages, influencing workers’ training and retirement decisions. How can developing countries prepare themselves for the artificial intelligence revolution?