A Bridge on Economic Issues between China and the World
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The “Trusted-assistant” Loan in Nineteenth Century China
Meng Miao, Guanjie Niu, Thomas Noe, Nov 08, 2017In this paper, we analyze “trusted-assistant loans,” which were loans issued (typically) by Shanxi Banks during the Qing period to finance newly appointed scholar-officials. Even though creditors lacked legal rights and, in fact, lacked every repayment enforcement mechanism advanced by economic contract theory, repayment rates on these loans were relatively high and they constituted a large and profitable portion of many banks’ loan portfolios. This paper develops a theory of “resource-based” debt contract enforcement that rationalizes repayment and tests the hypothesis of this theory using data from scholar-officials’ diaries and nineteenth century Chinese bank records.
Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China
Pauline Rossi, Yun Xiao, Mar 24, 2021To what extent and through which mechanisms are couples influenced by others when choosing their own family size? Recent research exploits exemptions in China’s family planning policies to show that conformism and competition drove the diffusion of small families, and hence accelerated the fertility transition in China.
China Needs Tighter Macro-Prudential Regulations to Loosen Capital Controls
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Andrea Ferrero, Alessandro Rebucci, Nov 29, 2017China is on a path to capital account liberalization. If the renminbi is to become an international reserve currency (e.g. Prasad, 2016), as it has started to and one day will be, China must have an open capital account. But once the capital account is open, the economy will be exposed to gyrations of the global financial cycle (Rey, 2014). This column argues that international credit supply shocks have powerful effects on real and financial variables of the receiving countries, but not all economies are affected similarly, and those that have lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) and limits on foreign currency borrowing (FXLs) are less vulnerable. As China lowers controls on capital flows (e.g., Benigno et al., 2016) it should consider tightening domestic macro-prudential policy regulations (e.g., Cesa-Bianchi and Rebucci (2017) to avoid excessive volatility.
The Unintended Impacts of Agricultural Fires: Human Capital in China
Joshua Graff Zivin, Tong Liu, Yingquan Song, Qu Tang, Peng Zhang, Dec 25, 2019The practice of burning agricultural waste is ubiquitous around the world, yet the external human capital costs from those fires have been underexplored. Using data from the National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) and agricultural fires detected by high-resolution satellites in China from 2005 to 2011, this paper investigates the impacts of fires on cognitive performance...
GDP Management to Meet or Beat Growth Targets
Changjiang Lyu, Kemin Wang, Frank Zhang, Xin Zhang, Oct 24, 2018We apply the discontinuity methodology from the accounting literature to a political economy setting of GDP reporting and examine whether Chinese local governments manage regional GDP numbers. We find strong evidence of discontinuities around zero in the distribution of actual minus target GDP growth rates. The frequencies of just meeting or beating GDP growth targets are about five (four) times the frequencies of just missing targets at the prefecture (province) level. The results are stronger for governors with longer tenures and those without political connections to higher-level officials as well as for local governments with more resources under their control.
