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Lessons from the Baby Bonus in South Korea: Increased Births and Restored Natural Sex Ratio

Wookun Kim, Jan 20, 2021

I study the causal effects of South Korea’s baby bonus on fertility by exploiting temporal and spatial variation in pro-natalist cash transfers provided to families with newborn babies. Based on registry records spanning the universe of births from 2000 to 2015, I find that the baby bonus increased completed fertility: in the absence of the policy, the total fertility rate in 2015 would have been lower by 3%, which is equivalent to 450,000 fewer babies born...

Exporting like China: The Determinants of Trade Status

Russell Cooper, Guan Gong, Guanliang Hu, Ping Yan, Feb 03, 2021

We study the export decision of Chinese manufacturing firms, both public and privately owned enterprises. In 2019, China’s exports of goods accounted for 13% of goods exported in the world and around 20% of China’s GDP. The importance of understanding the determinants of trade patterns in China goes beyond its national borders. Observed export decisions contradict the prediction of the standard trade model...

Special Deals from Special Investors: The Rise of State-Connected Private Owners in China

Chong-En Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Michael Zheng Song, Xin Wang, Feb 10, 2021

We document a hierarchy of private owners connected to the state through equity investment and a rapid expansion of this hierarchy over the past two decades. We build a model to show how the effects of a special deal from a state investor can be transmitted and amplified through the hierarchy. Our estimation suggests that the expansion in the span of state-connected private owners may have increased aggregate output of the private sector by 4.2% a year between 2000 and 2019.

The Effect of Computer-Assisted Learning on Students’ Long-Term Development

Nicola Bianchi, Yi Lu, Hong Song, Feb 17, 2021

We examine the effect of computer-assisted learning on students’ long-term development. We explore the implementation of the largest ed-tech intervention in the world to date, which connected China’s best teachers to more than 100 million rural students through satellite internet. Exposure to the program improved students’ academic achievement, labor performance, and computer usage for at least ten years after program implementation. These findings indicate...

Industry/Policy View Banking Across Borders: Are Chinese Banks Different?

Eugenio Cerutti, Cathérine Koch, Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Feb 24, 2021

Chinese banks have become the largest cross-border lenders to emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Despite their different ownership structure, their type of global reach resembles that of advanced economies’ (AE) banks, with distance to their borrowing EMDEs less of a barrier than that of other EMDE banks and more like U.S. or European banks. While bilateral trade, FDI, and portfolio investment positively correlate with lending for most banking systems, Chinese banks’ lending to EMDEs also strongly correlates with trade (e.g., in line with patterns exhibited by U.S. banks), but not with FDI and, unlike other banks, it correlates negatively with portfolio investment.