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Chinese Economic Growth Doesn’t Appear Overstated, but Its Heavy Reliance on Credit May Be a Cause for Concern

Hunter Clark, Jeff Dawson, Maxim Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Jun 20, 2017

Are China's official GDP growth number exaggerated? Hunter Clark, Jeff Dawson and Maxim Pinkovskiy from the New York Fed and Xavier Sala-i-Martin from Columbia University use satellite measurements of the intensity of China’s nighttime light emissions to proxy for GDP growth. Their estimate of Chinese GDP growth, since 2012, was never appreciably lower, and was in many years higher, than the GDP growth rate reported in the official statistics.

China’s “Great Leap Forward” in Science and Engineering

Richard B. Freeman, Jun 20, 2017

From "Made in China" to "Innovated in China" can occur only if China produces a large number of scientists and engineers. Richard B. Freeman of Harvard University documents China's "Great Leap Forward" in science and engineering in the past decades in the number of engineers and scientists, the number of scientific papers, patents and innovations.

Long-run Trends in China’s Urban Unemployment and Labor Force Participation

Shuaizhang Feng, Yingyao Hu, Robert Moffitt, Jul 19, 2017

Official unemployment rate in China is based on registered unemployment figures, but the official figures are likely underestimates of the true unemployment rates because many unemployed people are not qualified to register with government agencies and even those who are qualified may choose not to for various reasons. Shuaizhang Feng of Jinan University, and Yingyao Hu and Robert Moffitt, both of Johns Hopkins University, discuss their new effort to provide the first comprehensive picture of China’s labor market for the period 1988-2009 using Urban Household Survey (UHS) data administered by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Industry/Policy View Assessing China’s Financial Risk: Evidence from the Stock Market

Hao Zhou, Haibin Zhu, Xiangpeng Chen, Jul 14, 2017

VoxChina welcomes views from industry reports and policy reports.This piece summaries the views about China’s financial risk from - Hao Zhou, the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University, Haibin Zhu, J.P. Morgan and Xiangpeng Chen, the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University.

Shadow Banking: China’s Dual-Track Interest Rate Liberalization

Hao Wang, Honglin Wang, Lisheng Wang, Hao Zhou, Jul 26, 2017

Professors Hao Wang and Hao Zhou, both of Tsinghua University, Honglin Wang formerly of Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR) and Lisheng Wang of Chinese University of Hong Kong, argue that the shadow banking explosion in China may constitute a dual-track reform mechanism to liberalize the country's rigid interest rate policy.