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The Long-term Persistence of Informal Finance in China

Jinyan Hu, Chicheng Ma, Bo Zhang, Jan 24, 2018

By using data on 137 counties in north China, we find that the density of financial institutions (Qianzhuang and Diandang) in the late Qing period has a significant positive effect on the number and total assets of small loan companies, a dominant institution of informal finance today. The persistent effect of historical financial institutions can be explained by Confucian culture, which instills integrity, lineage solidarity and acquaintance networks.

Trends and Cycles in China’s Macroeconomy

Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha, Jun 27, 2018

China’s spectacular growth over the 2000s has slowed since 2013. The driving force behind the country’s growth was investment, so the key to understanding the slowdown lies in understanding what sustained investment in the past. This column shows how a preferential credit policy promoting heavy industrialisation explains the trends and cycles in China’s macroeconomy over the past two decades. This policy was not without negative consequences, particularly in terms of the distortions it introduced for business finance. Going forward, China needs to focus on creating the right incentives for banks to make loans to small productive businesses.

Assessing and Addressing the Coronavirus-Induced Economic Crisis: Evidence from 1.5 Billion Sales Invoice

Zhuo Chen, Pengfei Li, Li Liao, Zhengwei Wang, Aug 31, 2022

We probe the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent containment policies on business activities in China by exploiting big data on 1.5 billion sales invoices. The average drop in sales was between 23% and 35%, depending on firm size, for the 12-week period after the Wuhan lockdown.

Gender Differences in Reactions to Failure in High-Stakes Competition: Evidence from the National College Entrance Exam Retakes

Le Kang, Ziteng Lei, Yang Song, Peng Zhang, Jun 05, 2024

This article discussing the different reactions between male and female students when facing failure in the context of the National College Entrance Exam in China.

Will robots replace workers? Lessons from China

Osea Giuntella, Yi Lu, Tianyi Wang, Aug 06, 2025

Robot adoption has skyrocketed in China in the last decade. New research finds that this exposure has led to a decline in employment and wages, influencing workers’ training and retirement decisions. How can developing countries prepare themselves for the artificial intelligence revolution?