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The Pre-Announcement Drift in China: Government Meetings and Macro Announcements
Jun Pan, Qing Peng, Mar 20, 2024Confirming Chinese equity market is policy-driven, this study reveals a significant pre-Govt return before top government meetings, akin to the US pre-FOMC drift. It highlights the market's anticipation of these events and their impact on asset pricing, underscoring the centralized financial system in China.
The Economic Toll of China’s Tutoring Ban
Zibin Huang, Yinan Liu, Mingming Ma, Leo Yang Yang, Aug 27, 2025China's 2021 “Double Reduction'' policy, which banned for-profit K12 academic tutoring, triggered an abrupt contraction in the education-services labor market. Using real-time job-posting and firm-registration data, we estimate over three million job openings lost in four months and at least 11 billion RMB in value-added tax (VAT) revenue losses within 18 months, alongside unintended negative spillovers to untargeted arts and sports training.
Consumer-Financed Fiscal Stimulus Evidence from Digital Coupons in China
Jing Ding, Lei Jiang, Lucy Msall, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Feb 05, 2025In 2020, local governments in China began issuing digital coupons to stimulate spending in targeted categories such as restaurants and supermarkets. We find that the coupons caused large increases in spending of 3.1–3.3 yuan per yuan spent by the government. The large spending responses do not come from substitution away from non-targeted spending categories or from short-run intertemporal substitution. We conclude that digital coupons are a cost-effective way to provide targeted fiscal stimulus to specific sectors of the economy.
Cash in the Darkness
Haohan Ren, Kemin Wang, Bohui Zhang, Fan Zhang, Jan 12, 2024Relying on a large dataset on cash withdrawals of over 165 million bank cards from China, we find a higher ratio of cash withdrawals late at night is associated with criminal activity.
Financial Spillovers of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from China
Haoyuan Ding, Shu Lin, Shujie Wu, Haichun Ye, May 08, 2024Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has enhanced the financial conditions of Chinese enterprises, particularly through the financial spillover effects generated by supply chain connections, which have helped to reduce the burden of trade credit and increase opportunities for bank financing.
