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Rebalancing in China: Progress and Prospects
Longmei Zhang, Aug 02, 2017This paper develops a framework for China’s rebalancing, reviews past progress, and discusses medium-term prospects. China has advanced well in reducing its excessive external surplus and moving towards consumption and services, while still lagging behind in reducing credit reliance, environmental pollution, and income inequality. Going forward, the economy will continue rebalancing in many dimensions, while credit will remain China’s Achilles heel unless decisive corporate restructuring and SOE reforms are implemented.
Estimating China’s Growth Potential from Its Global Value Chain Position
Dazhong Cheng, Jian Wang, Zhiguo Xiao, Mar 04, 2020We find that China’s potential growth in GDP per capita is substantially underestimated if the level of GDP per capita is employed as the convergence indicator as done in previous studies (e.g., Barro, 2015 and 2016). Using data on China’s position in the global value chain (GVC) prior to 2010, we predict that the country’s GDP per capita could have grown at 7%–8% annually between 2010 and 2015, which is closer...
The Impact of Corporate Taxes on Firm Innovation: Evidence from the Corporate Tax Collection Reform in China
Jing Cai, Yuyu Chen, Xuan Wang, Dec 19, 2018We explore a tax reform on manufacturing firms in China in order to study the impact of taxes on firm innovation. The reform switched corporate income tax collection from a local to state tax bureau and reduced the effective tax rate by 10 percent. The reform only applied to firms established after January 2002, allowing us to use a regression...
Impacts of Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction
Kaiji Chen, Haoyu Gao, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha, Dec 02, 2020China’s 2009 stimulus presents an ideal case for exploring the impacts of monetary-fiscal interaction on credit allocation and investment. During this stimulus period, monetary stimulus itself did not favor SOEs over non-SOEs in credit access. Fiscal expansion, however, enhanced the monetary transmission to bank credit that was allocated to local government financing vehicles...
China’s Health Insurance Evolution: Unpacking the Monumental Role of the NCMS
Jonathan Gruber, Mengyun Lin, Junjian Yi, Jul 31, 2024This article discusses that the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) implemented in China from 2003 to 2008 significantly reduced mortality rates among rural residents and greatly enhanced national health outcomes, serving as a model for developing countries in achieving universal health coverage.
